Part of Trump voters who reported that they had “hot” or “very warm” feelings against him
These questions reveal two overlooked aspects of the Trump election.
Yes, white voters without a college diploma have been deliberately shifted from Barack Obama to Donald J. Trump in 2016. However, these voters actually represented only a slightly larger share of Trump’s coalition than the previous three Republican nominated coalitions.
And while Mr Trump has a large and resilient base of supporters, a large proportion had reservations when they cast their votes for him and continue to have reservations about him today. A small but meaningful number of their constituents, especially women, seems to have been soured on him since the election.
Understand the breadth of Mr Trump’s coalition is important to understand the Republican Party’s position in the 201
8 middle terraces. Mr Trump’s most enthusiastic supporters were crucial to his victory in primary, and the Obama-Trump voters in the old industrial modes were crucial in the election. But the midterm could be determined by voters on the edge of Trump’s coalition and by the public’s imagination: stereotype-defying female, college educated or non-white Trump supporters, who are more likely to receive reservations about the president. They may have been unwilling to back him, but they were still important for their 2016 victory and are essential to GOP’s chances today.
This more nuanced image is shown by a survey of validated voters on the Pews American Trends Panel, a representative sample of American adults who agreed to take Pew surveys every month. The panel enables a rare, direct measurement of how voters have changed over time.
Pew asked the panelists how they voted in November 2016, and the answers were matched with a selection list indicating whether a panelist actually cast a vote. It is a big advantage over typical surveys, which struggle to distinguish shift in public opinion from the impact of a new set of respondents in each survey. There is perhaps the clearest picture yet of who supports Trump and how his electorate knows him today.
Trumps voters are demographically similar to Mitt Romney’s
If you want to understand why Trump won the presidency, there is one big reason: white voters without a college degree. They put Mr. Trump at the top of unreasonable white working class battlefields where Mr. Obama went relatively well, like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan.
But Herr Trumps supporters are not monolithic. Nor is his coalition necessarily dominated by the groups that broke the strongest for him.
Only 33 percent of Mr. Trump’s followers were white men without a college degree. A majority of Mr Trumps supporters defy the stereotype: they were either women, non-white or college students (or a combination of them).
Everywhere, 47 percent of Mr Trumps voters were women. And although he fought among the highly educated college educated white for a Republican, he still won 44 percent of voters who made more than $ 150,000 a year, according to the Pew data, and nearly 40 percent of the voting colleges.
Perhaps surprisingly, Mr Trumps voters were about as likely as the supporters of other recent Republican nominees to hold a college degree.
How was the number of white working class Republican voters so constant? Republicans have won a progressively greater proportion of white voters without any degree, but the group is shrinking over everything. As a result, the two trends have basically interrupted.
White non-collegiate voters break strong for Mr. Trump …
… but the voters make up
Share of all voters
Details for the previous presidential election are estimates based on pre-selection , survey data and election results. 2016 data based on Pew Research Center estimates.
At the same time, the Republicans have lost ground among university educated and non-white voters, but these groups have grown as part of the electorate. How strange would a room full of Trump voters resemble a space full of George W. Bush voters, at least based on their race and education.
A room full of Democrats, on the other hand, would look a lot different. The party is growing well among growing parts of the voter, and worse among the shrinking number of white working class voters. Everywhere for Democrats, white voters have barely fallen from 43 percent of John Kerry’s voters to 26 percent of Hillary Clintons.
Composition of Democratic Presidential Colleges
White Without Higher Education
White with Higher Education
Details for the previous presidential election are estimates based on pre-selection, questionnaires and election results. 2016 data based on Pew Research Center estimates.
The shift between the university’s educated white voters was particularly sharp and the Pew data is one of the strongest evidence that Mrs Clinton did much better among this group than originally believed. In the Pew tasks, she carried college-educated white voters by 17 percentage points, a big change from 2012, when Mitt Romney won that group.
It is a very different story from the exit investigations, which showed Mr. Trump winning college-educated white voters. There is no doubt that the retirement surveys were incorrect. Nearly all other survey data, along with the precision level election, suggest that Mrs Clinton won scientifically educated white voters and probably with a large margin.
Trump voters most likely to stop supporting him: Women and college -educated
There has been little change in President Trump’s approval certificate in the last 18 months, and so it is often assumed that nothing can erode its support base. Yes, almost half of Mr Trumps voters have exceptionally hot views against him: 45 percent rated his feelings against him as 90 or higher by 100, a figure that is almost unchanged since his election. But a meaningful number of their constituents had reservations about him in November 2016, and even more Trump voters today hold a neutral or negative view of him.
Over 18 percent, Trump’s voters gave 18 percent a rating of 50 or less, on a scale of 0 (coldest) to 100 (warmest), up from 13 percent in November 2016.
It is worth noting that Pew The investigation in November 2016 was taken after Trump won the presidency at the height of his post-election honeymoon. But even if you consider the slightly lower values that voters gave him in the months before the election, the big picture is the same: A modest number of Mr Trump’s voters did not like him so much then and do not like him much now.
Women, and especially college-graduated women, are the most likely Trump voters to have serious reservations about him today: A striking 14 percent of college-educated women who voted for him hold a very cold impression of him from just 1 percent in November 2016.
How Voters for Trump have changed their feelings against him
A college diploma
A college diploma
] A college diploma
Women with a college degree
Women with a college degree
Women with a college degree
Women with a college degree Source: Pew Research Center | Warm feelings represent grades of 51 or higher on a sensitivity thermometer from 0 (coldest) to 100 (warmest) among validated voters in 2016 who reported to vote for Mr Trump. Neutral or slightly cold feelings represent grades of 25 to 50 and very cold feelings represent values below 25. Numbers can not add up to 100 due to rounding.
Will the Trump coalition appear in 2018?
The resilience of Mr Trump’s winning coalition gives Republicans a chance to hold the congress, even in a mid-term year when the President’s overall approval rating is well below 50 percent. It helps to explain why he has maintained almost unanimous support from Republican congressmen despite his outrageous position on trade and Russia.
But while it is obvious that most of Mr. Trump’s supporters stand by him, there are big questions about whether they will be as good to the Republicans 2018 as they were for him in 2016.
Mr. Trumps coalition was enough to win presidential elections to a large extent because white voters of the working class were overrepresented in the presidential states. It is not true in the most vulnerable Republican district.
At the same time, white voters show no lesser college in the middle of the election . And the dividend among university educated voters has been unusually high in special and general elections held since the Trump won the presidency.
If the pattern persists, the combination of a better educated battlefield and lower division among less educated voters can be determined by the house control in district Higher educated voters represent about 47 percent of voters, instead of 34 percent t share of such voters in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan in 2016, according to estimates based on census data.
Mr. Trumps most vigorous support can hold him through November and beyond. But in the middle, Republicans will have a burden of fighting in many areas where the base may not be enough.
The composition of the 2016 selector
The largest groups are marked
|Part of the Trump coalition||Part of the Clinton coalition||Share of all voters|
|Women||47 %||19,659,066] 61%  55%  White  88%  60%  74%  Black  1%  19%  19% ] 19%||4%||7%||5%|
|Age 18 to 29||6%||14%||10%|
|Other ] 18%||13%|
|Age 30 to 49||27%||32%||30%|
|Age 50 to 64||33%||27%||29%|
|High School or Less||34%||28%||30%||19659061] Some college||37%||29%||34%|
|Higher Education||9%||19659065] 19%||14%|
|Less than $ 30,000||20%||33%||28%|
|$ 30,000 to $ 74,999||42%||35%||19659060] 38%|
|$ 75,000 or more||36%||31%||33%|
|Urban||12%||32%  22%  Suburban  53%  48%  50%  Rural  35%  19%  27%  Source: Pew Research Center|