Nigel Farage saw four would-be Brexit Party MPs stand down in just one day
Based on recent polling, it suggests there are around 19 seats the Tories could take more easily if the Brexit Party candidate dramatically scaled down their campaign.
In these seats, mostly Labour-held, the Conservatives could prevail if just 50 per cent or less of votes originally destined for the Brexit Party went to the Tories instead.
The constituencies include ex-Prime Minister Tony Blair‘s former seat of Sedgefield. The analysis, by Electoral Calculus, predicts a wafer-thin win in Sedgefield for Labour over the Tories of around 24 votes. But as many as 4,308 could vote for the Brexit Party in the seat, which voted 59 per cent in favour of leaving the EU.
There are a further 35 seats the Tories could win if between 50 and 100 per cent of current Brexit Party supporters switched to the Tories, according to the analysis. Electoral Calculus uses ‘regression’ techniques which drill down into the demographic profiles of voters, taking account of characteristics such as age, gender, education, social class, past voting, religion and more. Electoral Calculus currently predicts Mr Johnson will win around 339 seats — a majority of 28.
But if you live in any of the constituencies listed below — or indeed any Labour/Conservative marginal — your vote has never been more vital. Our guide explains how Nigel Farage’s Brexit Party still holds the balance of power in many of the election’s key seats.
You can send a polite email to the Brexit Party candidates, urging them to publicly back the Tories.