Victoria suffers a record 19 deaths and 322 news coronavirus cases 

Victoria has suffered its deadliest day in the coronavirus pandemic with 19 deaths and 322 new cases. 

The figure takes the state’s death toll to 229 and the national total to 314. 

Fourteen of the 19 deaths were residents in aged care. The people who died were one man in his 50s, one woman in her 60s, two men in their 70s, one man and six women in their 80s, and one male and seven women in their 90s. 

Premier Daniel Andrews said the daily case totals appeared to be decreasing as a result of lockdowns and compulsory mask wearing. 

‘We’re certainly seeing perhaps some greater stability that is a result of the cumulative impact of stage three,’ he said. 

But he warned Victorians ‘not to get ahead of ourselves’ and to keep following lockdown rules.  

In his daily press conference Mr Andrews showed two videos of COVID-19 survivors who had lasting health impacts, including a middle-aged woman who needed a breathing tube for a month. 

‘Think about the person who is most important to you. And then think about them with a tube to help them breathe in intensive care for 32 days. That’s how serious this is,’ he said. 

Airline passengers off a Qantas domestic flight from Melbourne make their way to coaches headed for hotel quarantine at Sydney International Airport

Airline passengers off a Qantas domestic flight from Melbourne make their way to coaches headed for hotel quarantine at Sydney International Airport

Airline passengers off a Qantas domestic flight from Melbourne make their way to coaches headed for hotel quarantine at Sydney International Airport

A man is detained by Victoria Police on Sunday after protesters demonstrated against lockdown

A man is detained by Victoria Police on Sunday after protesters demonstrated against lockdown

A man is detained by Victoria Police on Sunday after protesters demonstrated against lockdown

Normally busy shopping centres in Melbourne were empty on Sunday

Normally busy shopping centres in Melbourne were empty on Sunday

Normally busy shopping centres in Melbourne were empty on Sunday  

A woman walks down the street during an anti-lockdown protest in Melbourne on Sunday

A woman walks down the street during an anti-lockdown protest in Melbourne on Sunday

A woman walks down the street during an anti-lockdown protest in Melbourne on Sunday

On Sunday Australia’s Deputy Chief Medical Officer Nick Coatsworth said Victoria seems have passed the peak of the outbreak after recording 725 new cases on August 5. 

‘It appears we’re in the plateau but we’re looking for the inflection point that tells Victorians that their efforts are being rewarded,’ he said. 

‘We haven’t seen that yet but I have no doubt that we will see it. If you consider that stage three restrictions had us almost at a plateau, then the stage four restrictions will produce a result.’ 

New daily case numbers in Victoria have been stuck around 500 for the past seven days, falling to 394 new cases on Sunday with 17 new deaths.

Dr Coatsworth said the pandemic was challenging as you ‘never really know where you are on the curve’.

The rate at which the virus spreads is called the ‘reproductive number’ or R-0.

Victoria has suffered a record 19 deaths and 322 cases of coronavirus

Victoria has suffered a record 19 deaths and 322 cases of coronavirus

Victoria has suffered a record 19 deaths and 322 cases of coronavirus

Hari Krishnas cheerfully singing on the St Kilda foreshore on Sunday. Experts have taken heart that Victoria's daily new infection rate appears to be dropping

Hari Krishnas cheerfully singing on the St Kilda foreshore on Sunday. Experts have taken heart that Victoria's daily new infection rate appears to be dropping

Hari Krishnas cheerfully singing on the St Kilda foreshore on Sunday. Experts have taken heart that Victoria’s daily new infection rate appears to be dropping 

This graph shows Victoria's coronavirus infection rate appears to be falling from a peak of 725 cases on Wednesday 5 August

This graph shows Victoria's coronavirus infection rate appears to be falling from a peak of 725 cases on Wednesday 5 August

This graph shows Victoria’s coronavirus infection rate appears to be falling from a peak of 725 cases on Wednesday 5 August

A family frolicks in a St Kilda park in Melbourne on Sunday as new case numbers fall

A family frolicks in a St Kilda park in Melbourne on Sunday as new case numbers fall

A family frolicks in a St Kilda park in Melbourne on Sunday as new case numbers fall

If the R-0 is at one, then R-1 means that every person with the virus spreads it to one other person.

Numbers above R-1 mean a virus will spread exponentially, but if the reproductive number falls below one then the virus will slowly fizzle out. 

COVID-19 has a natural median reproductive number of R-5.7, according to a study published in the journal Emerging Infectious Diseases, which explains why it exploded all over Victoria.

Victoria’s outbreak now has a basic reproductive number of R-1 – or just below one, Dr Coatsworth said on Sunday.

‘The ideal situation would be if we could see that reproductive number at 0.5,’ he said.

‘We don’t have enough data at the moment from the numbers to see whether that’s approaching 0.5, but in the coming days to week we will see that.’ 

On Sunday six people were arrested and 27 were fined for breaching restrictions at a protest against lockdown called the Melbourne Freedom March. 

Queensland recorded one new case of coronavirus on Monday morning, traveller in hotel quarantine. 

Queensland’s aged care homes can now reopen to visitors, with authorities confident two infected teens who dodged quarantine did not spread coronavirus.

Officials had been on high alert for an outbreak linked to the women who spent a week moving around the community after returning from Melbourne in July.

‘Today was the very important day,’ Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk said, referring to the end of the two-week period since police placed the women in isolation.

‘Aged care restrictions will be lifted, which I know means a lot to the families, especially over the last week or so when they have not been able to see their loved ones.’

Chief Health Officer Jeannette Young said Bolton Clarke aged care facility in Brisbane’s southwest would need to remain closed for another day and a half.

‘Until we have confirmation that potential outbreak is over,’ she said.

According to The Australian, grim secret modelling by the Victorian Government leaked on Wednesday estimated the daily case load would rise to 1,100 by the end of this week.

The dire forecast showed case numbers would then hover above 1,000 per day and would not fall below current levels until the end of August. 

But Premier Daniel Andrews said no-one in his government or the federal government was aware of the modelling.  

A lone protester was detained after a proposed anti-lockdown rally did not materialise in Melbourne on Sunday. The harsh lockdown and mandatory facemasks have already got new infection numbers falling, giving hope to the community

A lone protester was detained after a proposed anti-lockdown rally did not materialise in Melbourne on Sunday. The harsh lockdown and mandatory facemasks have already got new infection numbers falling, giving hope to the community

A lone protester was detained after a proposed anti-lockdown rally did not materialise in Melbourne on Sunday. The harsh lockdown and mandatory facemasks have already got new infection numbers falling, giving hope to the community

Little Italy in Lygon Street, Melbourne, on Sunday where 22 premises once bustling with cafes and restaurants are now empty. Residents hope things may return to normal in six weeks

Little Italy in Lygon Street, Melbourne, on Sunday where 22 premises once bustling with cafes and restaurants are now empty. Residents hope things may return to normal in six weeks

Little Italy in Lygon Street, Melbourne, on Sunday where 22 premises once bustling with cafes and restaurants are now empty. Residents hope things may return to normal in six weeks

Professor Tony Blakely from the University of Melbourne also said the outbreak has already peaked thanks to mask wearing. 

‘It looks like the curve turned at 30 July. But more importantly, it makes sense.’ he said.

The professor said July 30 was about one week from when mandatory mask wearing was put in place by the Victorian government – which is also slightly more than the virus’s five day incubation period. 

‘Mask wearing appears to have bent the curve, consistent with expectation. Or put another way, the numbers would be higher now without mask wearing, and much higher again without Stage 3 restrictions,’ he said. 

He predicted a significant drop in the smoothed-out daily numbers would occur about 10 days from when Victoria put Stage 4 restrictions in place on Thursday. 

He said once the numbers drop to around 200 per day, which he expects stage four restrictions will achieve, then contact tracing teams will be less overwhelmed and the state will be able to keep the numbers down. 

Professor Tony Blakely's five-day average chart predicted Victoria's outbreak has already peaked and is now on the way down. Professor Blakely is optimistic that facemasks and the lockdown have reduced the virus transmission already

Professor Tony Blakely's five-day average chart predicted Victoria's outbreak has already peaked and is now on the way down. Professor Blakely is optimistic that facemasks and the lockdown have reduced the virus transmission already

Professor Tony Blakely’s five-day average chart predicted Victoria’s outbreak has already peaked and is now on the way down. Professor Blakely is optimistic that facemasks and the lockdown have reduced the virus transmission already

People enjoy St Kilda pier on Sunday in Melbourne with their masks and face shields firmly on as residents stick to Stage Four lockdown rules in order to crush the virus outbreak

People enjoy St Kilda pier on Sunday in Melbourne with their masks and face shields firmly on as residents stick to Stage Four lockdown rules in order to crush the virus outbreak

People enjoy St Kilda pier on Sunday in Melbourne with their masks and face shields firmly on as residents stick to Stage Four lockdown rules in order to crush the virus outbreak

As of Sunday, 1725 of Victoria’s healthcare workers have been struck down by the virus of which 994 are still active cases.

Melbourne’s metropolitan area has been the hardest hit with 13,445 cases compared with just 889 from regional Victoria.

On Sunday the state recorded 394 new cases taking the state’s total to 14,659 of which 7854 are active. 

Dr Coatsworth issued a plea for everyone to download and activate the Government’s COVIDSafe app on their mobile phones, saying it was needed now that states other than Victoria are easing their lockdowns.

‘We see what happens when you have an essentially open economy as you do in New South Wales,’ he said.

‘And that’s where COVIDSafe comes into its own.’

In Sydney’s western suburbs, 544 people were traced through the app which led to the positive identification of two new COVID-19 cases, Dr Coatsworth said. 

New South Wales recorded 10 new coronavirus cases on Sunday, only one of which was a returned overseas traveller in hotel quarantine. 

St Kilda pier, Melbourne, pictured on Sunday. Worldwide there were 19.9 million coronavirus cases

St Kilda pier, Melbourne, pictured on Sunday. Worldwide there were 19.9 million coronavirus cases

St Kilda pier, Melbourne, pictured on Sunday. Worldwide there were 19.9 million coronavirus cases

Seven new cases are close contacts of previous cases, while two are being investigated. 

New South Wales is the only other state to be consistently reporting new cases, with new case numbers hovering from 10 to 15 over the past week.

Health authorities have warned against complacency in New South Wales after 11 new infections were found with no known source. 

Worldwide there were 19.9 million coronavirus cases as of the early hours of Monday morning, of which 6.3 million are active cases, 12.7 million have recovered and 731,104 people have died, according to Worldometers statistics.

The country with the highest numbers continued to be the USA with 5.1 million cases, followed by Brazil at 3 million and India on 2.2 million. 

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