After an exhausting seven-week campaign, Britain goes to the polls today in its first December general election since 1923.
Polling stations are open from 7am until 10pm, when an exit poll will give the first indication of the results. Votes will then be counted overnight.
Most opinion polls predict a Conservative majority, but there are signs that the race has narrowed in the final weeks of the campaign.
YouGov’s final polling analysis, which correctly predicted a hung parliament in 2017, projects a Tory majority but experts warn that a hung parliament is still possible.
The national picture should become clear in the early hours of Friday morning. For those with the energy to stay up, here is a guide to how the 2019 general election will play out.
Head to head: Boris Johnson (left) and Jeremy Corbyn (right) give their closing pitches of the campaign at separate London rallies last night, as Britain goes to the polls today in its first December election since 1923
How they stand: This diagram shows how many MPs each party had when Parliament was dissolved last month. Boris Johnson is hoping to turn his minority government into a majority in order to pass his Brexit deal
Swingometer: The Tories would need only a small swing from the 2017 election to reach enough seats for an overall majority – but a two per cent swing to Labour could make them the largest party
7am – POLLS OPEN
Polling stations open across the UK at 7am and remain open until 10pm.
The Electoral Commission says any eligible electors who are queuing at the polling station at 10pm must be allowed to vote.
If you live in England, Wales or Scotland you do not need to bring any identification to vote. However, you will need to show photo ID to vote in Northern Ireland.
You do not have to take your poll card with you, but the Electoral Commission advises if you have it with you it can help speed up the process.
Broadcasters are not allowed to publish the results of any opinion polls while people are voting.
In recent elections, voters have used the relative quiet to share pictures of their dogs at polling stations. You can send yours to MailOnline by emailing email@example.com.
Taking photos, including selfies, inside the polling station is not allowed as it puts the secrecy of voting at risk. The Electoral Commission says you are welcome to take photos outside the polling station.
Directions: UK polling stations will be open from 7am until 10pm, when an exit poll will give the first indication of the results
10pm – EXIT POLL
Polls close, and the BBC, ITV and Sky will reveal the results of their combined exit poll.
The exit poll is different from other opinion polls because instead of asking people how they intend to vote, it asks people how they actually voted.
It has a good track record of forecasting the result in recent elections. In 2017, the exit poll predicted the Tories would end up with 314 seats, just three short of the 317 the party actually won.
However, it is still only a survey and could prove to be incorrect. In 1992, the exit poll forecast a hung parliament, but John Major’s Conservatives went on to win a majority of 21.
Exit poll: When polling stations close at 10pm, broadcasters including Sky News (above) will reveal the results of an exit poll which will give the first indications about the results
11pm – FIRST RESULTS
Two constituencies in the North East of England – Houghton and Sunderland South, and Newcastle-upon-Tyne Central – will race to be the first to declare.
Both results are expected around 11pm and both are safe Labour seats. Bridget Phillipson has a majority of 12,341 in Houghton and Sunderland South.
However, any rise or fall in Labour’s majority could be an early indication of how Jeremy Corbyn’s party will fare nationally.
In 2016, Sunderland’s strong vote for Brexit – and Newcastle’s marginal Remain vote – was an early indication that the Leave campaign was outperforming expectations.
Race toe be first: Election staff count ballot papers for the General Election at Silksworth Community Centre in Sunderland. Two early seats in the North East will be held by Labour but could give an indication of swing to or from the Conservatives
12pm – MORE LABOUR STRONGHOLDS
Four more safe Labour seats are likely to have declared by midnight, all in the North East of England.
Again, look out for any evidence of a change in Labour’s vote share and a possible swing to the Conservatives.
1am – WORKINGTON MAN
‘Workington Man’ was said to be a key figure in this campaign – the sort of northern Brexiteer who might leave Labour for the Tories.
However, the Conservatives have to overturn a sizeable majority (3,925) to win the first key marginal of the night. YouGov’s final polling model showed Labour on course to hold it.
If Mr Johnson’s party takes the seat, he might be on course for a comfortable majority in the new Parliament. If Labour holds, the overall result could be narrower.
North Down should be the first result of the night from Northern Ireland – a seat formerly held by the Independent MP Sylvia Hermon, and being targeted at this election by the DUP, the Ulster Unionists and the Alliance.
The home of Workington Man: The Conservatives have to overturn a sizeable majority (3,925) to win the first key marginal of the night. YouGov’s final polling model showed Labour on course to hold it
How will the election be shown on TV?
BBC coverage will be led by Huw Edwards. He will be joined by Reeta Chakrabarti, Andrew Neil, Tina Daheley, while Jeremy Vine will take his place at the swingometer.
The 2019 election programme team will also include political editor Laura Kuenssberg, Europe editor Katya Adler, economics editor Faisal Islam, and media editor Amol Rajan, alongside polling expert Professor Sir John Curtice.
Across the country the broadcaster will also have BBC Breakfast’s Naga Munchetty, Andrew Marr, Martha Kearney, Nick Robinson and Lucy Manning, plus Sarah Smith and Kirsty Wark broadcasting live from Scotland.
Sophie Raworth will analyse the results as they come in on a giant constituency map of the UK.
Sky pulled the upset of the election broadcast operation when it announced that former Speaker John Bercow would form part of its team.
Mr Bercow only stepped down from the role at the end of October, shortly before the election was called.
He will join veteran anchor Dermot Murnaghan, with added input from political editor Beth Rigby, deputy political editor Sam Coates and economics editor Ed Conway.
Channel 4 is hosting a live eight-hour Alternative Election Night.
Coverage will be hosted by its veteran presenter Krishnan Guru-Murthy and comedian Katherine Ryan along with reality television star and radio DJ Rylan Clark-Neal, who will be ‘sense-checking results with a specially invited studio audience’.
Clare Balding will have the results as they happen, political comic Matt Forde will run an ‘alternative news desk’ and Judge Rinder will be out and about at votes.
The broadcaster said they would be joined by ‘an eclectic mix of the country’s biggest political figures’, including ex-home secretary Amber Rudd and former Labour deputy leader Tom Watson, plus comedians including Sophie Willan and Tez Ilyas.
ITV will welcome back former financial opponents George Osborne and Ed Balls, after they sparred well in 2017. They will be joined by former Scottish Tory leader Ruth Davidson, with Tom Bradby anchoring.
Also appearing will be Mr Johnson’s brother Jo Johnson, who stepped down as an MP at the election, Momentum chief Jon Lansman, Leave leader and ex-Labour MP Gisela Stewart, and former Labour home secretary Alan Johnson.
1.30am – KEY MARGINALS
There has been much talk of the Tories breaching the ‘red wall’ of Labour support in the North, thanks in part to Brexit. If the Conservatives overturn Labour’s majority of 3,280 in Darlington, it’s a very good night for them.
A Tory victory in Nuneaton was an early sign of David Cameron’s election success in 2015. The Tories are hopeful of taking votes off Labour in the West Midlands. If Marcus Jones extends his 4,739 majority, it will show they have succeeded.
2am – RESULTS PICKING UP
By 2am, results will start to pick up. The first results will come from Scottish seats being defended by the SNP, such as Dunbartonshire West, and Lanark and Hamilton East.
Results to look out for include:
Battersea – Marsha de Cordova (Lab) – majority 2,416
One of the first indications of how the parties are faring in the capital. Labour snatched it last time – and it will hope to increase its vote in this Remain seat.
Putney – former seat of Justine Greening (Con) – majority 1,554
Another south London seat – this one vacated by Justine Greening who lost the Tory whip in September – is one of Labour’s key hopes. Again, it is a Remain seat.
Hartlepool – Mike Hill (Lab) – majority 7,650
One of the first seats where the Brexit Party could have a real impact. The Tories are hopeful of overturning Labour’s majority, but this could be in peril if too many back Nigel Farage’s party.
West Bromwich East – former seat of Tom Watson (Lab) – majority 7,713
Before he quit as Labour’s deputy leader and stepped down as an MP last month, Mr Watson had a healthy majority and if the Tories take it it’s a very good night for them. However, YouGov’s final MRP projections showed Labour on course to hold the seat.
Wrexham – former seat of Ian Lucas (Lab) – majority 1,832
A crucial marginal in North Wales. The Conservatives have never won here – but it is definitely within the party’s grasp.
2.30am – KEY SCOTTISH MARGINAL
Angus – Kirstene Hair (Con) – majority 2,645
The first big Tory-SNP fight of the night. The seat is expected to fall to the nationalists, but if the Tories hang on it’s a good night for them. If they lose heavily, it could herald a near wipeout north of the border.
3am – BIG NAMES ON THE BALLOT
Constituency results will be flooding in by now. Several big names will find out around 3am if they will be sitting in the new parliament.
Jeremy Corbyn’s result will be declared in Islington North. He will win easily, but the Labour leader will be expected to address the emerging national picture.
Some of the key seats include:
Esher and Walton – Dominic Raab (Con) – majority 23,298
Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab is under threat in this Surrey seat. He has a mammoth majority, but the constituency voted Remain and the Liberal Democrats are talking up their chances.
Chingford and Woodford Green – Iain Duncan Smith (Con) – majority 2,438
Another Tory big beast at risk – former leader Iain Duncan Smith. He has a majority of just 2,500 and Labour are pushing him hard.
The seat will also be an indication of Labour’s overall strength in London. The party performed exceptionally well in the capital in 2017, but the Lib Dems won London in the European elections in May.
At risk: Former Tory leader Iain Duncan Smith is facing a strong challenge from Labour in his constituency of Chingford and Woodford Green. The seat will also be an indication of Labour’s overall strength in London
Final push: Jeremy Corbyn in London yesterday on the final day of the general election campaign. He will win easily in his North London constituency but will be expected to address the emerging national picture
Cities of London and Westminster – former seat of Mark Field (Con) – majority 3,148
Former Labour and Change UK MP Chuka Umunna is standing here for the Liberal Democrats, who were a distant third last time.
East Dunbartonshire – Jo Swinson (Lib Dem) – majority 5,339
Lib Dem leader Jo Swinson could be under threat here if the SNP has a very good night. The nationalists won the seat in 2015, but Ms Swinson took it back in 2017.
Ms Swinson has seen the Lib Dems’ poll rating decline since the election was called, with signs that Remainers are returning to Labour.
Lib Dem leader Jo Swinson (pictured) could be under threat in East Dunbartonshire if the SNP has a very good night. The nationalists won the seat in 2015, but Ms Swinson took it back in 2017
Great Grimsby – Melanie Onn (Lab) – majority 2,565
Boris Johnson has been targeting this heavily Leave-voting Labour seat in North East Lincolnshire. Labour has held the seat without interruption since Winston Churchill’s defeat in the 1945 election.
Beaconsfield – Dominic Grieve (Con) – majority 24,543
Ex-Attorney General Dominic Grieve won by a huge majority last time – but now the arch-Remainer is standing against the Tories as an independent. It will be hard for him to hang on.
Independent candidate: Ex-Attorney General Dominic Grieve (pictured on the campaign trail) won by a huge majority last time – but now the arch-Remainer is standing against the Tories as an independent in Beaconsfield
Bishop Auckland – Helen Goodman (Lab) – majority 502
This is exactly the sort of Leave-voting northern seat the Tories need to take if they are to have any chance of getting a majority. Labour have held the seat since 1935.
Sheffield Hallam – former seat of Jared O’Mara (Lab) – majority 2,125
The Lib Dems will want to retake Nick Clegg’s former seat of Sheffield Hallam from Labour. Jared O’Mara won the seat in 2017 but was suspended from the party over claims he made misogynistic and homophobic comments.
Sedgefield – Phil Wilson (Lab) – majority 6,059
Taking Tony Blair’s former seat would be a symbolic victory for the Tories and a sign of Labour’s decline since it won three elections in a row in 1997, 2001 and 2005.
3.30am – CONSERVATIVE BELLWETHERS
Totnes – Sarah Wollaston (previously Con) – majority 13,477
The South West is traditionally a Lib Dem heartland but the 2015 election changed all that. Tory defector Sarah Wollaston is standing for the Lib Dems in her old seat.
Hastings and Rye – former seat of Amber Rudd (Con) – majority 346
Miss Rudd was almost toppled here in 2017, but she quit the Cabinet and surrendered the party whip in the autumn, and is not standing at this win it this time, it will indicate a bad night for Mr Johnson.
4am – HIGH-PROFILE MARGINALS
Over half of the results will be in, and the overall trend of the night should be clear. Labour targets such as Harrow East, Loughborough and Milton Keynes South will declare, along with Lib Dem targets like St Albans and Cheltenham.
The SNP will hope to hold Fife North East and with a larger margin than they managed in 2017, when they had a majority of just two.
Seats to watch include:
Wakefield – Mary Creagh (Lab) – majority 2,176
The Conservatives are very confident of snatching Miss Creagh’s marginal seat in West Yorkshire – another pro-Leave constituency which feels left behind by Labour.
Canterbury – Rosie Duffield (Lab) – majority 187
Rosie Duffield became the first ever Labour MP for Canterbury in 2017. She has a tiny majority – but tactical voting could see her hang on.
The initial Lib Dem nominee, Tim Walker, stood down in the hope of helping Labour, but Jo Swinson’s party has fielded another candidate.
Marginal seat: Labour’s Emily Thornberry and Rosie Duffield, who won Canterbury for the party in 2017, campaign in the seat on December 1. Labour has a tiny majority but tactical voting could see them hang on
Kensington – Emma Dent Coad (Lab) – majority 20
Labour took this well-heeled seat on a tiny majority in 2017 just days before the Grenfell fire. On a good night the Tories will take it back, but it could be a close three-way race with the Lib Dems.
In 2017 the result needed several recounts and wasn’t confirmed until nearly 24 hours after polls closed.
Uxbridge and South Ruislip – Boris Johnson (Con) – majority 5,034
Boris Johnson will give his first reaction to the election night drama when the results are declared in his West London constituency.
The PM only has a small majority and Labour has been fighting this one hard in the hope of claiming a remarkable scalp. If its candidate, Ali Milani, manages to unseat him here, it would be a truly historic night for Labour.
By 5am Boris Johnson should know whether he’s safely back in Uxbridge and South Ruislip, where he won only a slim majority over Labour in 2017
5am – MORE LABOUR SEATS AT RISK
By 5am, Anna Soubry should have discovered whether she’s been able to hold Broxtowe for the Change party. Labour seats at risk include:
Bolsover – Dennis Skinner (Lab) – majority 5,288
Could it finally be the end for the Beast of Bolsover, Dennis Skinner? His seat is heavily pro-Brexit, and the Conservatives have poured resources into fighting it.
Ashfield – former seat of Gloria de Piero (Lab) – majority 441
Another Labour seat which is on the brink of a historic switch. Created in 1955, it has been held by Labour at every general election since.
Former GMTV star Gloria de Piero narrowly won this pro-Brexit seat in Nottinghamshire last time. It will be hard for her successor to hang on.
6am – FINAL TRICKLE OF RESULTS
By now, results will have slowed to a trickle. London could deliver some late upsets, such as:
Chipping Barnet – Theresa Villiers (Con) – majority 353
Environment Secretary Theresa Villiers is under threat here. She only just clung on in 2017 with a wafer-thin majority over Labour.
Finchley and Golders Green – Mike Freer (Con) – majority 1,657
Luciana Berger, the Labour MP forced out of the party over anti-Semitism, is standing in this heavily Jewish seat for the Lib Dems. But the Tories are confident of holding on.
Richmond Park – Zac Goldsmith (Con) – majority 45
Tory Zac Goldsmith won this seat in 2017 by a handful of votes. He’s unlikely to do so this time – making it a valuable Lib Dem gain in the capital.
Vulnerable: Tory Zac Goldsmith (pictured) won his Richmond Park seat in 2017 by a handful of votes. He’s unlikely to do so this time – making it a valuable Lib Dem gain in the capital
7am – THE FALLOUT BEGINS
The last handful of results will come in later on Friday morning. Caroline Lucas will discover if she has been re-elected as the Green MP for Brighton Pavilion and there could be late Lib Dem gains in the South West.
Recounts could delay some of the declarations from earlier, but every seat is due to begin counting overnight so there is a good chance all 650 results will be in by mid-morning.
With the national picture now decided, the winning party leader will go to see the Queen and begin the task of forming a new government.
In a hung parliament, pro-Remain MPs could try to force another extension of Brexit beyond the current Article 50 deadline. Jeremy Corbyn could then attempt to form a government with the help of the SNP.
The prize: Either Boris Johnson or Jeremy Corbyn will be speaking in front of 10 Downing Street’s famous black door (pictured) after the first December general election since 1923
‘It’s on a knife-edge!’ Boris Johnson makes final plea to voters as he hammers home his Brexit vow
By James Tapsfield, Political Editor and Jack Maidment, Deputy Political Editor for MailOnline
Boris Johnson made his final plea for voters to help him ‘get Brexit done’ last night, hours before the ballot boxes open – and with polls showing the result is still on a knife edge.
The PM said it is ‘up to you now’ after another frenetic day of campaigning in which he warned the risk of a Jeremy Corbyn government is still ‘very real’.
‘Now is the time for this amazing country to come together and remember what it is capable of doing,’ he told a glitzy rally at the Olympic Park in east London.
Mr Johnson urged activists to ‘fan out’ and convince people to ‘give a miss’ to the hard-Left platform of Mr Corbyn, and instead elect a ‘sensible, moderate, dynamic One Nation government’.
Boris Johnson told a glitzy rally at the Olympic Park in east London (pictured) that it is ‘up to you now’ after another frenetic day of campaigning in which he warned the risk of a Jeremy Corbyn government is still ‘very real’
‘We have 24 hours to break the deadlock,’ the PM warned Conservative party faithful who broke out into chants of ‘Boris! Boris!’.
He told voters: ‘This election is our chance to end the gridlock but the result is on a knife-edge. To every one of you who is fed up with the endless arguments and wants to move on, every one of you who wants us to respect the referendum result and deliver the change people voted for, every one of you who wants us to focus on a positive, united future, every one of you who worries about the chaos of a Corbyn-Sturgeon alliance in a hung parliament, my message is simple.
‘Give me a majority and I will finish what we started – what you instructed us to do – three and a half years ago. A great future is there within our grasp, but I need your vote.’
Mr Johnson’s rallying cry came as a series of polls showed the Tories holding on to their lead over Labour – but the gap is not big enough to guarantee an overall majority when the outcome is finally revealed on Friday morning
In a homely appeal to voters weary of Westminster’s long-running Brexit farce, Mr Johnson added: ‘Just imagine how wonderful it will be to settle down to a turkey dinner this Christmas with Brexit decided.
‘And how awful it would be if Corbyn and Sturgeon were in Downing Street advancing their plans for two more referendums.’
The rallying cry came as a series of polls showed the Tories holding on to their lead over Labour – but the gap is not big enough to guarantee an overall majority when the outcome is finally revealed on Friday morning.
A survey by Opinium, conducted in the last two days of the campaign, put the Conservatives on 45 per cent, down three points over the past week.
Labour was up two points to 33 per cent, figures which should be enough to guarantee Mr Johnson the functional government he craves.
However, one in ten voters are yet to make up their mind about how they will cast their vote. A Savanta ComRes survey found there was just five points between the main parties, with the gap shrinking by one.
An Opinium survey gives the Tories a 12 point lead over Labour on the eve of the general election. Compared to the same poll last week, Labour are up two, the Conservatives are down one and the Lib Dems are also down one
Boris Johnson plants a Get Brexit Done sign in Benfleet, Essex, this evening as he was given a pre-election poll boost putting him on course to win a majority
The Labour leader’s own rally last night was a much more low-key event in Hoxton Docks, where he told supporters to spread the message of ‘socialism, which is about hope’ to the country on Thursday.
Mr Corbyn visited Glasgow and the north of England where he raised eyebrows by insisting Labour will win the election ‘no problem at all’.
How Britain’s pollsters are predicting the election
YouGov: Tory 9-point lead Conservative 43, Labour 34, Lib Dems 12
ICM: Cons 42, Lab 36, LD 12
Opinium: Cons 45, Lab 33, LD 12
BMG: Cons 41, Lab 32, LD 14
Panelbase: Cons 43, Lab 34, LD 11
NCP: Cons 43, Lab 33, LD 12
Qriously: Cons 43, Lab 30, LD 12
Savanta ComRes: Cons 41, Lab 36, LD 12
Kantar: Cons 44, Lab 32, LD 13
Deltapoll: Cons 45, Lab 35, LD 10
Pro-Corbyn group Momentum said it was mobilising up to 30,000 supporters to knock on doors up and down the country to get people out to vote.
Voters will face rain and gales in many parts of the country as they go to the polls in the first December election for almost a century.
And Labour said it had won the social media battle – with millions more people watching campaign videos of Mr Corbyn than those of Mr Johnson.
Mr Corbyn also fired a broadside at his Tory rival for ‘hiding in the fridge,’ saying that Labour is not afraid of being asked questions after a bizarre row engulfed the PM on the final day of the campaign.
Mr Johnson’s day got off to an awkward start in West Yorkshire as he was ambushed by a reporter from ITV’s Good Morning Britain, prompting one of his aides to swear on live television.
The PM refused to be interviewed and sought refuge in a fridge at the dairy he was visiting, sparking a wave of ridiculing memes on social media.
The attempt to hijack the premier’s final day of the campaign left the Conservatives furious as sources insisted Mr Johnson had not been ‘hiding’.
In his sabre-rattling speech to whip up party grassroots, Mr Johnson warned against electing ‘a Hamas-backing IRA-supporting, anti-Semitism-condoning appeaser of the Kremlin’ – Mr Corbyn
Jeremy Corbyn’s final rally was a much more low-key event at Hoxton Docks, where he told his party faithful to vote for ‘socialism, which is about hope’
Hammering the Brexit message: The PM has spent the final day of campaigning on a cross-country blitz of marginal seats, ending in Benfleet, Essex, where he used a sledgehammer to plant a Conservative sign in an activist’s garden
Jeremy Corbyn, pictured on a visit to Rother Valley this afternoon, has insisted Labour will win the election ‘no problem at all’
While Mr Johnson was addressing party faithful in Stratford, his partner Carrie Symonds was hunkered down in Tory HQ in Westminster making last-minute calls to voters with her adopted dog Dilyn
The Opinium survey is likely to have buoyed Mr Johnson’s spirits, pictured in Hengoed in south Wales this afternoon, as it suggests he is still on course to win a majority
Boris Johnson’s final day of campaigning gets off to terrible start
Boris Johnson’s exasperated media minder swore on live TV as the PM refused to speak to Good Morning Britain before seeking refuge in a fridge as he started an early-morning milk round in Yorkshire.
Piers Morgan was visibly shocked and Susanna Reid had her head in her hands as Mr Johnson’s press secretary Robert Oxley declared ‘for f***’s sake’ and blocked the path of GMB’s roving reporter Jonathan Swain after he tried to ambush the premier.
The Tory leader, who was delivering milk in the marginal seat of Pudsey, West Yorkshire, yesterday morning, has repeatedly refused to appear on the ITV1 show.
Mr Swain confronted Mr Johnson as he put milk crates in a van and said: ‘Morning Prime Minister, will you come on Good Morning Britain? Will you deliver on your promise to speak to Piers and Susanna?’
A tired-looking Mr Oxley loudly muttered: ‘For f***’s sake’ as his boss ignored the calls and wandered into a large walk-in chiller as Mr Morgan exclaimed: ‘He’s gone into the fridge’.
Following several minutes in the fridge, Mr Johnson later returned with a crate of orange juice and was asked if he would keep his promise to appear on the programme and replied: ‘Of course I will’ – but with the polls opening tomorrow he refused to say when.
Tory sources said the PM was ‘categorically not hiding’ in the fridge and that he was actually being briefed by aides ahead of a separate and pre-agreed interview.
The YouGov polling analysis which correctly predicted the hung parliament in 2017 predicted on Tuesday night that the Tories were on course to win a 28-seat majority.
However, the MRP model suggested the race had tightened in the final weeks of the campaign and pollsters warned that a hung parliament was still possible.
The model predicts that the Conservatives will win 339 seats, with Jeremy Corbyn‘s party on 231 and the Liberal Democrats on 15.
The seat-by-seat model, which is based on thousands of interviews, puts the Tories on 43 per cent of the vote and Labour on 34 per cent.
The forecast suggests the race has tightened since the previous MRP results on November 27 showed the Tories on course for a majority of 68.
The Conservatives are predicted to gain 22 seats, including in Labour heartlands such as Ashfield, Bassetlaw and Tony Blair’s former seat of Sedgefield.
A majority of 28 would be the Conservatives’ best result since Margaret Thatcher’s third election victory in 1987.
However, there are signs that Labour is ‘patching the cracks’ in its so-called ‘red wall’ of seats across the North and the Midlands.
Conservative strategists fear that an ugly row over the NHS on Monday has damaged their campaign and candidates say the election is now ‘on a knife edge’.
The Tories’ shrinking lead means that Labour are now on course to retain Tory target seats such as Tom Watson’s former constituency of West Bromwich East.
Labour are also favoured to win Workington, home of the ‘Workington Man’ target voter highlighted by a think tank.
In addition, Labour are set to repeat their shock victories in Kensington and Canterbury, the poll suggests.
Two senior Tories – Dominic Raab and Iain Duncan Smith – face close races in their constituencies. Mr Raab leads the Lib Dems by only two points in his Surrey constituency, according to the model.
Prediction: YouGov’s final polling model of the 2019 general election campaign projects that the Conservatives will win a majority of 28
YouGov projects a small Conservative majority as the most likely outcome of the election, with this map showing the seats most likely to change hands
Predicted vote share: The seat-by-seat model, which is based on thousands of interviews, puts the Tories on 43 per cent of the vote and Labour on 34 per cent